McKinnon group

2025

*Duan, S.Q., K.A. McKinnon, and I.R. Simpson, 2025. The impact of soil preconditioning on the evolution of heatwaves under constrained circulation: a case study of the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2025EF006216. | PDF, online.

*Hwangbo, N., K.A. McKinnon, and K.J. Anchukaitis, 2025. Simultaneous Optimal Target Season Estimation and Local Climate Reconstruction Using Tree Rings. Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2025GL116495. | PDF, online | code.

*Madakumbura, G.D., M.A. Moritz, K.A. McKinnon, A.P. Williams, S. Rahimi, B. Bass, J. Norris, R. Fu, and A. Hall, 2025. Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California. Science Advances, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adt2041. | PDF, online.

Hidalgo, H., S.W. Chou-Chen, K.A. McKinnon, S. Pascale, D. Quesada-Chacón, E.J. Alfaro, P. Bautista-Solís, P.M. Pérez-Briceño, H. F. Diaz, T. Maldonado, E.R. Rivera, and T. Nakaegawa, 2025. Detection and attribution of trends of meteorological extremes in Central America. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-025-03940-5. | PDF, online.

2024

McKinnon, K.A., I.R. Simpson, and A.P. Williams, 2024. The pace of change of summertime temperature extremes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.2406143121. | PDF, online | code.

Byrne, M.P., G.C. Hegerl, J. Scheff, O. Adam, A. Berg, M. Biasutti, S. Bordoni, A. Dai, R. Geen, M. Henry, S.A. Hill, C. Hohenegger, V. Humphrey, M. Joshi, A.G. Konings, M.M. Lague, F.H. Lambert, F. Lehner, J.S. Mankin, K.A. McColl, K.A. McKinnon, A.G. Pendergrass, M. Pietschnig, L. Schmidt, A.P. Schurer, E.M. Scott, D. Sexton, S.C. Sherwood, L. Vargas Zeppetello, and Y. Zhang, 2024. Theory and the future of land-climate science. Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01553-8. | PDF, online.

Williams, A.P., K.A. McKinnon, K.J. Anchukaitis, A. Gershunov, A.M. Varuolo‐Clarke, R.E.S. Clemesha, and H. Liu, 2024. Anthropogenic intensification of cool‐season precipitation is not yet detectable across the Western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2023JD040537. | PDF, online.

*Duan, S.Q., K.A. McKinnon, and I.R. Simpson. Two perspectives on amplified warming over tropical land examined in CMIP6 models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0955.1. | PDF, online.

*Jacobson, T.W.P., R. Seager, A.P. Williams, I.R. Simpson, K.A. McKinnon, and H. Liu, 2024. An unexpected decline in spring atmospheric humidity in the interior Southwestern United States and implications for forest fires. Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-23-0121.1. | PDF, online.

McKinnon, K.A. and P. Huybers, 2024. Inferring Northern Hemisphere continental warming patterns from the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0773.1. | PDF, online | code.

Simpson, I.R., K.A. McKinnon, D. Kennedy, D.M. Lawrence, F. Lehner, and R. Seager, 2024. Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.2302480120. | PDF, online | code.

2023

*Anderson, T.A., K.A. McKinnon, D. Pons, and K.J. Anchukaitis, 2023. How Exceptional Was the 2015–2019 Central American Drought? Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2023GL105391. | PDF, online | code.

*Kong, W., K.A. McKinnon, I.R. Simpson, and M.M. Lague, 2023. Understanding responses of summer continental daily temperature variance to perturbations in the land surface evaporative resistance. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-1011.1. | PDF, online | code.

2022

McKinnon, K.A., and I.R. Simpson, 2022. How unexpected was the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave?. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2022GL100380. | PDF, Supplementary Information, online | code.

*Horowitz, R.L., K.A. McKinnon, and I.R. Simpson, 2022. Circulation and Soil Moisture Contributions to United States Heatwaves. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0156.1. | PDF, online | code.

*Olivarez, H., N. Lovenduski, R. Brady, A. Fay, M. Gehlen, L. Gregor, P. Landschutzer, G. McKinley, K.A. McKinnon, and D. Munro, 2022. Replaying the tape of history: Synthetic large ensembles of sea-air carbon dioxide (CO2) flux. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, doi:10.1029/2021GB007174. | PDF, online.

*Baugh, S. and K.A. McKinnon, 2022. Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Ocean Heat Content and Its Uncertainty. Annals of Applied Statistics, doi:10.1214/22-AOAS1605. | PDF, online | code.

McKinnon, K.A., 2022. Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”. Environmetrics, doi:10.1002/env.2721. | PDF, online. (Invited commentary, not peer reviewed.)

Simpson, I.R., D.M. Lawrence, S.C. Swenson, C. Hannay, K.A. McKinnon, and J.E. Truesdale, 2022. Improvements in Wintertime Surface Temperature Variability in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Related to the Representation of Snow Density. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 14 (4), doi:10.1029/2021MS002880. | PDF, online.

Williams, A.P., B. Livneh, K.A. McKinnon, W.D. Hansen, J.S. Mankin, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, A.M. Varuolo-Clarke, N.R. Bjarke, C.S. Juang, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2022. Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (10), doi:10.1073/pnas.2114069119. | PDF, online.

2021

McKinnon, K.A. and C. Deser, 2021. The inherent uncertainty of precipitation variability, trends, and extremes due to internal variability, with implications for Western US water resources. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0251.1. | PDF, Supplementary Information, online | code.

*Elsworth, G.W., N.S. Lovenduski, and K.A. McKinnon, 2021. Alternate history: A synthetic ensemble of ocean chlorophyll concentrations. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, doi:10.1029/2020GB006924. | PDF, online.

McKinnon, K.A., A. Poppick, and I.R. Simpson. Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest, 2021. Nature Climate Change 11, 598-604, doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01076-9. | PDF, online | code.

Simpson, I.R., K.A. McKinnon, F.V. Davenport, M. Tingley, F. Lehner, A. Al Fahad, and D. Chen. Emergent constraints on the large scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future?, 2021. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0055.1. | PDF, online | code.

2020

Mankin, J.S, F. Lehner, S. Coats, and K.A. McKinnon. The Value of Initial Condition Large Ensembles to Robust Adaptation Decision‐Making, 2020. Earth's Future 8 (10), doi: 10.1029/2020EF001610. | PDF, online.

Poppick, A. and K.A. McKinnon. Observation-based Simulations of Humidity and Temperature Using Quantile Regression, 2020. Journal of Climate 33 (24), 10691–10706, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0403.1. | PDF, online.

McKinnon, K.A., and A. Poppick. Estimating Changes in the Observed Relationship Between Humidity and Temperature Using Noncrossing Quantile Smoothing Splines, 2020. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics 21, doi:10.1007/s13253-020-00393-4. | PDF, online | code.

Deser, C., F. Lehner, K. B. Rodgers, T. Ault, T. L. Delworth, P. N. DiNezio, A. Fiore, C. Frankignoul, J. C. Fyfe, D. E. Horton, J. E. Kay, R. Knutti, N. S. Lovenduski, J. Marotzke, K. A. McKinnon, S. Minobe, J. Randerson, J. A. Screen, I. R. Simpson & M. Ting. Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects, 2020. Nature Climate Change 10, 277-286, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0731-2. | PDF, online.

*Elsworth, G.W., N.S. Lovenduski, K.A. McKinnon, K.M. Krumhardt, and R.X. Brady. Finding the Fingerprint of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Marine Phytoplankton Abundance, 2020. Current Climate Change Reports 6, 37-46, doi:10.1007/s40641-020-00156-w. | PDF, online.

2019

*Merrifield, A.L., I.R. Simpson, K.A. McKinnon, S. Sippel, S.‐P. Xie, and C. Deser. Local and Nonlocal Land Surface Influence in European Heatwave Initial Condition Ensembles, 2019. Geophysical Research Letters 46, 14082–14092, doi:10.1029/2019GL083945. | PDF, online.

Simpson, I.R., S.G. Yeager, K.A. McKinnon, and C. Deser. The predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe, 2019. Nature Geoscience 12 (8), 613-619, doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0391-x. | PDF, online.

2018

Simpson, I.R., C. Deser, K.A. McKinnon, and E.A. Barnes. Modelled and observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream and its connection to Sea Surface Temperatures, 2018. Journal of Climate 31 (20), 8313-8338, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0168.1. | PDF, online.

McKinnon, K.A. and C. Deser. Internal variability and regional climate trends in an Observational Large Ensemble, 2018. Journal of Climate 31 (17), 6783-6802, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1. | PDF, Supplement, online | code, data.

Deser, C., I. Simpson, A. Phillips, and K.A. McKinnon. How well do we know ENSO’s climate impacts over North America, and how do we evaluate models accordingly?, 2018. Journal of Climate 31 (13), 4991-5014, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1. | PDF, Supplement, online.

2017

McKinnon, K.A., A. Poppick, E. Dunn-Sigouin, and C. Deser. An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability, 2017. Journal of Climate 30 (19), 7585-7598, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0905.1. | PDF, online | code, data.

Deser, C., I. Simpson, K.A. McKinnon, and A. Phillips. The Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly?, 2017. Journal of Climate 30 (13), 5059-5082, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1. | PDF, online.

2016

Rhines, A., K.A. McKinnon, M.P. Tingley, and P. Huybers. Seasonally Resolved Distributional Trends of North American Temperatures Show Contraction of Winter Variability, 2016. Journal of Climate 30 (3), 1139-1157, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0363.1. | PDF, online.

McKinnon, K.A. and P. Huybers, 2016: Seasonal constraints on inferred planetary heat content. Geophysical Research Letters 43 (20), 10955-10964, doi:10.1002/2016GL071055. | PDF, online | code.

McKinnon, K.A., A. Rhines, M.P. Tingley, and P. Huybers, 2016: The changing shape of Northern Hemisphere summer temperature distributions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121 (15), 8849-8868, doi:10.1002/2016JD025292. | PDF, online | code.

McKinnon, K.A., A. Rhines, M.P. Tingley, and P. Huybers, 2016: Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures. Nature Geoscience 9, 389–394, doi:10.1038/ngeo2687. | PDF, Supplement, online | code.

Mueller, N.D., E.E. Butler, K.A. McKinnon, A. Rhines, M.P. Tingley, N.M. Holbrook, and P. Huybers, 2016: Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification. Nature Climate Change 6, 317-322, doi:10.1038/nclimate2825. | PDF, online.

2015

Rhines, A., M.P. Tingley, K.A. McKinnon, and P. Huybers, 2015: Decoding the precision of historical temperature observations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141 (693), 2923-2922, doi:10.1002/qj.2612. | PDF, online.

2014

McKinnon, K.A. and P. Huybers, 2014: On using the seasonal cycle to interpret extratropical temperature changes since 1950. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (13), 4676-4684, doi:10.1002/2014GL060404. | PDF, online.

Huybers, P., K.A. McKinnon, A. Rhines, and M.P. Tingley, 2014: US daily temperatures: The meaning of extremes in the context of nonnormality. Journal of Climate 27 (19), 7368-7384, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00216.1. | PDF, online.

2013

McKinnon, K.A., A.R. Stine, and P. Huybers, 2013: The spatial structure of the annual cycle in surface temperature: Amplitude, phase, and Lagrangian history. Journal of Climate 26 (20), 7852-7862, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00021.1. | PDF, online.

2012

McKinnon, K.A., A.N. Mackintosh, B.M. Anderson, and D.J.A. Barrell, 2012: The influence of sub-glacial bed evolution on ice extent: a model-based evaluation of the Last Glacial Maximum Pukaki glacier, New Zealand. Quaternary Science Reviews 57, 46-57, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.10.002. | PDF, online.